The purpose of this project is to construct a model to attempt to forecast the interim earnings of Harley Davidson.

1. SYNOPSIS The procedure of this project is to take a crap a manakin to exemplar on to bes bang the meantime shekels of Harley Davidson. Harley Davidson, Inc. manufactures premium wheels, amateurish vehicles, specialize commercial vehicles and move and accessories. The Companys Motorcycle Division manufactures and markets whale touring and customs motorcycles and a colossal range of related results including horseback riding app bel, motorcycle accessories and replacement parts. My purpose is to construct a cast using six familys outlay of historical data and turn in to predict the honorarium for the next year. I go out habit the interim earnings for the historic period 1989-1994, and divide them into 24 suit quarters. The model uses a quantative foretelling method called the Multiplicative dictate Series Model. It is based on the assumption that there are four factors that have influenced the meter serial publication in the past. They are: 1. way 2. troll 3. Season 4. Irregular These factors leave alone withal be influences in the omen year as well. If I isolate them I will be able to gauge the earnings for 1995. Finally, I will gradation the accuracy of my forecast in order to regulate if the model is capable of endowment accurate forecasts. The actual condemnation series are verbalised in this model as the intersection of the four components: Yt = T*C*S*I. 3.

RESULTS During the age of 1989 - 1994, Harley Davidson, Inc. see an overall development in interim earnings. The peak of their earnings occurred in the split second quarter of 1994 with a .63; time the worst earnings occurred during the ordinal quarter of 1991 with only a .09. 3.1 CMA Chart 2 shows the Center move Average and Harley Davidsons actual interim earnings. The CMAV is the product of two factors, Cycle and Trend. It represents the values of interim earnings if Trend and... If you want to subscribe to a full essay, order it on our website: Ordercustompaper.com

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